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The Strength of the Market Depends Upon Price Range

The Strength of the Market Depends Upon Price Range

In a recent market update I outlined how we are seeing more price reductions, fewer sales and that the market seems to be shifting away from a strong sellers market.  However, there are still pockets in the Boulder County market where most of the houses are under contract.  As I looked further I found that these “pockets” around the county all seemed to be in the lower price range of their community.  The graphic below shows the absorption rate of the inventory throughout Boulder County in different price ranges.  Think of it this way, if we froze the market and accepted no new listings but sales happened at the rate they have been happening over the past three months, how long would it take to sell all of the listings.  According to NAR (National Association of Realtors) a balanced market is 6 months.  Anything less than that is a sellers market and more is a buyers market.  So what we have is a sellers market under $1 million, a balanced market between $1 million and $2 million and a buyer’s market above $2 million. Another interesting graph that helps to tell the story of the market is below and it shows the number of price reductions in the market on a weekly basis over the past three years.  2015 and 2016 were markets characterized by multiple offers and above asking price sales.  2017 started out in much the same way but by the end of spring we were seeing some softening.  One way to see this softening graphically is in the number of price...
Boulder County Real Estate Statistics for August 2017

Boulder County Real Estate Statistics for August 2017

The real estate statistics for Boulder County for the last few months have shown a shift in the market.  August continued this trend.  Sales during the month were 11% lower than last year and lower than any August since 2011.  We are seeing more price reductions, more negotiation room and it’s taking longer for homes to sell.  It seems that we are shifting away from a strong sellers market to a more balanced market.  View the presentation below to see multiple statistics pointing in the same direction.   Boulder County Real Estate Statistics August 2017 from Neil...
A Summer Wrap-Up and What’s Next in the Boulder Real Estate Market

A Summer Wrap-Up and What’s Next in the Boulder Real Estate Market

Market Update The next sixty days will tell us much about the direction of the real estate market in Boulder County.  If you are reading this newsletter, you are aware that our market has been on a torrid pace since 2013.  Over the past five years the average home has appreciated in value by over 60%[1] .  A year ago, during the second quarter, our annual appreciation rate was ranked number 1 in the nation.  In short, our market has been sizzling hot.  As I have written about before, net migration to the area, a strong economy, a desirable lifestyle and a shortage of housing and buildable land have been the major drivers of this trend.  However, anyone who pays attention to markets over the long term knows that all markets are cyclical.  In this short update I will highlight some current trends in the market and see what that might mean for the future. Trend #1 – Slowing Sales Through the end of July, sales in Boulder County were down 3% from a year ago.  This alone isn’t such a big deal.  What is more interesting is looking at sales on a monthly basis.  Through March, cumulative sales in Boulder County were up by 6% over 2016.  The market was strong, multiple offer situations were common and houses were selling quickly.  Sales tailed off a bit in April and May but that was due more to lack of inventory than anything else.  Then right around Memorial Day the market noticeably slowed down.  Houses that one would expect to sell quickly lingered on the market. We also started to...
Boulder County Real Estate Statistics – July 2017

Boulder County Real Estate Statistics – July 2017

Right around Memorial Day we saw a shift in the market.  At that point properties started staying on the market longer, inventory started rising and sales started to drop.  It’s normal in Boulder County to have a slow down during the summer but this year it began earlier than usual.   This decrease in sales coupled with an increase in inventory has led to a slowing of price appreciation in the county.  Is this a shift in the market or just a seasonal slow down?  The next 30 to 60 days will tell a lot.  What happens during the fall will give us a good indication of what to expect next winter and spring. See the presentation above for a more in depth view of the market as well as graphs and...
Boulder Area Real Estate Update – The Kearney Report Q2-2017

Boulder Area Real Estate Update – The Kearney Report Q2-2017

I have just completed the latest edition of The Kearney Report for the second quarter 2017.  The goal of this report is to give you a quick understanding of the statistics and trends in the Boulder County real estate market. You can view the entire report below or you can download the PDF here.  The Kearney Report 2nd Quarter 2017 Real Estate Market Update During the second quarter of 2017 the Boulder area real estate market continued to be a strong sellers market, but towards the end of the quarter there was a change in the market.  In this summary I will discuss these trends as well as discuss what we might expect to see during the third and fourth quarter of the year. During the second quarter of 2017 there were 1,459 sales in Boulder County which reflects an 8.3% drop from the same quarter of the previous year. The median sales price during the quarter was $500,000 which is ironically 8.3% higher than it was a year ago.  Inventory this year has been been consistently higher than the past two years and this has given buyers more choices when looking.  This was especially true at the end of May when the levels of active inventory were above 2016 and 2015 levels, equal to 2014 levels and just below 2013 levels.  During the second quarter, 41% (50%) of the homes sold for a price above the list price, 22% (20%) were at the asking price and 36% (30%) were below.  When comparing this years numbers to last years, which are shown in parenthesis, it’s clear that the market...
The Latest Kearney Report – Q1 2017

The Latest Kearney Report – Q1 2017

I have just published The Kearney Report for the 1st Quarter of 2017.  The entire report can be viewed below on this page or you can download the PDF link here The Kearney Report 1st Quarter 2017 Real Estate Market Update The Boulder area real estate market has been one of the most robust markets in the nation over the past few years.  The market has been characterized by steady sales, low inventory and rapidly rising prices.  This trend continued through the first quarter of 2017. During the first quarter of 2017 there were 847 sales in Boulder County which reflects a 5% drop from the previous year. The median sales price during the quarter was $465,000 which is 9% higher than it was a year ago.  Inventory, especially towards the end of the quarter and then extending into April and May has increased giving buyers more breathing room to shop for homes.  During the first quarter, 35% of the sales had a price above the list price, 20% were at the asking price and 45% were below.  Of those that did sell above list price the average premium paid was 4.4%. During the first quarter of 2016, 42% sold above list price and the average premium paid was 5.5%.  It seems that calling this a slow down is splitting hairs but during that same period it was my experience that showings were down and the number of offers received on any one property was down as well. Through the end of April the total number of residential sales in Boulder County is up roughly 1% with January and March exceeding...
Boulder Real Estate Market Slowing But Remains Strong in April

Boulder Real Estate Market Slowing But Remains Strong in April

Each spring since 2013 the real estate market in Boulder County could be characterized as frenetic. This year the market is a bit more tempered.  If you just look at April’s numbers the market seems similar to a year ago.  Sales are similar, inventory is up, prices are up…  However, despite strong forward looking sales it seems that the market has lost some of the strength we have seen over the past three springs.  Houses are staying on the market longer and there are fewer showings on new listings.  It will be interesting to see how it plays out but we don’t usually see the market slow down until late June and we are seeing it earlier this year in some segments. Sales in April were down 9.4% when compared to last April. Year-to-date sales are still up 1% but it seems that this year is losing a bit of steam.  Anecdotally, there have been fewer than expected showings on listings and even on popular properties when multiple offers have been received, the numbers of showings and offers is down. The slideshow below illustrates graphically different segments of the local real estate market including; number of sales, inventory (which is rising), under contract percentage etc.   Boulder County April 2017 Real Estate Statistics from Neil...
Which Boulder Neighborhoods Have Appreciated the Most?

Which Boulder Neighborhoods Have Appreciated the Most?

Which Boulder neighborhoods have appreciated the most and which are lagging behind?  This is a tough question to answer since there are so many variables.  But hopefully some data will help to make some sense of that question. Over the past five years the Boulder area has been on quite a run of price appreciation.  Some quick research in the MLS tells me that we have seen 50% appreciation in median prices in Boulder County over the past five years.  Breaking it down a bit more, here are the appreciation rates for the local communities over the past five years (from information gathered in IRES MLS): Boulder – 66% Louisville – 51% Lafayette – 60% Longmont – 61% Superior – 56% Erie – 50% To break it down a bit further I have divided the City of Boulder into eleven distinct neighborhoods.  To see more on these neighborhoods please see the Boulder Neighborhood Guide which I update each year.  A map of how I have delineated the neighborhoods is below. With the baseline of 66% appreciation over the past five years, here are the appreciation rates for Boulder neighborhoods. South Boulder – 65% Chautauqua – 52% Mapleton Hill – 44% Newlands – 36% Wonderland Lake/ Dakota Ridge – 34% North Boulder East – 76% Whittier – 46% North East Neighborhoods – 126%  (Note- Mostly condos and townhomes in this area with the exception of the Four Mile Creek, Kalmia 38 and Northfield neighborhoods which have seen high priced new builds which have raised the median prices way above the average) East Boulder – 49% Retail/Industrial Core – 106% (Note...
Boulder County Real Estate Statistics – February 2017

Boulder County Real Estate Statistics – February 2017

Boulder County February 2017 Real Estate Statistics from Neil Kearney The market is already up and running for the spring season. Inventory is up a bit and the percentage of those listings that are under contract is hovering around 50%.  Homes are still selling quick and it’s still a seller’s market but there is not quite as much pressure on the market as there was a year ago.  At the end of February, we can see that sales overall were up 3% in the first 2 months of 2017. However, total sales were down 5% in February when compared to last year. See the slideshow above for graphs and more...
Average Negotiation, Days to Offer & Other Random Facts

Average Negotiation, Days to Offer & Other Random Facts

If you are looking for the entire statistical overview of the Boulder real estate market in 2016 check out this comprehensive post and then this one about sales by price range. After working on those year end reviews articles I realized that I had some random charts that may be of interest.  These include DTO (Days To Offer); Average Negotiation; and Sales by Area throughout Boulder County. Both Days on Market (DOM) and Days to Offer (DTO) are presented in the chart above.  I like DTO better because it gives a more reliable read of the strength o of the market.  Days To Offer tells how long it took for an average listing (in this case all residential properties in Boulder County) to go under contract. In 2016 it took on average just 30 days to go under contract. This was one day longer than a year ago but less than half as long as the 15 year average of 66 days.  We have been blessed with lots of buyer demand. The graph above takes a bit of explanation.  Each column represents a quarter except for the one on the far right which represents 2016 as a whole.  The graph is measuring the relationship between sales price and listing price.  The blue section represents those properties that close below list price (at a discount).  The orange section represents those properties that sell for exactly list price.  The gray section represents those properties that sell for above list price (at a premium).  The data included was both single family and attached homes in Boulder County. Throughout the year the properties...