I’ve been tracking real estate sales in Boulder County for a long time. I am consistent in what data I collect and when I collect it. I love finding patterns in the numbers and then finding out why a deviation takes place. One of the most constant trends we have in the Boulder real estate market is the yearly sales cycle. Each year, sales bottom out in January and December and peak in June or July. The other months usually form a well ordered curve that resembles a bell curve. You know the one from high school algebra class. Here is a line graph showing real estate sales on a monthly basis over the past nine years.
As I was creating the graph the lines were especially uniform from 2004 to 2007. From 2008 through 2011 there were a number of outside forces that affected our local real estate market in ways that moved our curve.
Notice that the chart on the left is fairly uniform with a steady rise and fall and a peak in the summer. The chart on the right shows our market from 2008 forward (I added 2006 for comparison). It is less uniform and the curves are anything but uniform.
This year (the red line in the right hand graph) shows a return to normalcy. It is a steady line leading to a peak in June. We are still having good activity so I would expect that the curve to continue a gradual fall to the holidays. My conclusion is that unless there are significant outside forces in the market, sales in Boulder County follow a predictable curve of sales throughout the year. Sales are greatest in late spring or early summer and sales are at their low in December and January.
Note to sellers, there is still plenty of time left to sell in the 2012 market. If history holds September and October are strong markets similar to March and April.