303-440-6464 info@KearneyRealty.com
The Kearney Report – 4th Quarter 2017

The Kearney Report – 4th Quarter 2017

The Kearney Report – 4th Quarter 2017 I have just finished up The Kearney Report for the 4th Quarter 2017.  This report gives an in depth view of the real estate market in Boulder County as well as in the sub-areas of; City of Boulder, City of Longmont and East County (Louisville, Lafayette, Superior, Erie).  To download and view the report click this link The Kearney Report 4th Quarter 2017  I always provide my reports to you free of charge and without the need to sign up for a list.  You can also view it online below. We saw a big drop in sales and activity during the 3rd quarter.  During the 4th quarter the market stabilized.  Sales in Boulder County were roughly equal to where they were during the 4th quarter of 2016. Here are a few highlights for the quarter (mostly compared with 4th quarter 2016): Boulder County: The median price for the quarter was $480,000. This represents a 14% increase from the same quarter last year. It took 5 days longer to sell a home during the 4th quarter. There were 3.5% fewer homes on the market at the end of the year. At the end of the year there were 3.34 months of inventory on the market.  Still a seller’s market. City of Boulder: Sales during the quarter increased by 8.5%. Median price of $686,300 (for both condos and single family homes) up 12.5%. It took 7 days longer on average to get a home in Boulder under contract. Now 29 days. 3.65 months of inventory at the end of the quarter.  Just a bit higher...
Boulder Real Estate Statistics for December 2017

Boulder Real Estate Statistics for December 2017

The Boulder real estate market ended on a strong note in December of 2017.  Sales for the month were up 3.5% compared to December of 2016.  This good activity is also translating into a strong start for 2018. The slideshow below gives a good overview of the market in 8 quick slides. Sales for 2017 in its entirety were down 5.4%; prices were up approximately 6% with much of that appreciation occurring in the first half of the year.   Boulder County Real Estate – December 2017 Statistics from Neil...
Boulder Real Estate Market – 2017 Year in Review

Boulder Real Estate Market – 2017 Year in Review

2017 Year In Review Half-way through 2017 we saw a shift in the Boulder area real estate market.  The first half of the year was a continuation of the very hot market we experienced in 2014-2016 with rapid price appreciation, low inventory and a strong sellers’ market.  During the second half of the year we experienced a softer market characterized by homes staying on the market longer, more price reductions and more balanced negotiations. Here are some of the key statistics in Boulder County from 2017: Total sales were down 5% to 4,680 sales. The median price for all sales in 2017 was $480,000 which is up 6% from 2016. There were 490 sales that exceeded $1 million during the year which is 64 more than a year ago, 124 more than two years ago and 301 more than five years ago. At the end of December there were just 777 residential properties on the market in Boulder County and 331 of these were already under contract. This represents a low mark since I have been keeping track. Over the past 10 years, owning real estate in Boulder County has been a great investment.  Cumulative appreciation since 2007 has exceeded 60% with most of that occurring during the last five years. What’s Been Driving The Market? The United States is 8 ½ years into an expansion. This represents the 3rd longest consecutive expansion period since the Great Depression.[1]Colorado and especially Boulder County have benefitted from the strong economy. Colorado added approximately 60,000 new residents from migration and 56,300 new jobs in 2017. The unemployment rate in Colorado is 2.5%...
In 2017, Boulder Real Estate Negotiation Tipped Toward Buyers

In 2017, Boulder Real Estate Negotiation Tipped Toward Buyers

In 2017 in Boulder County, the average negotiation off of list price for all sales was 1.3%.  In 2016 it was .36%.  However, when you look at it more closely both over time and across price ranges there are some good market insights.  The chart below shows the sales in each of the last four quarters separated into three categories; those that sold for below the list price (blue), those that sold for exactly list price (orange), and those that sold for above list price (grey). As an example, let’s look at the second quarter of 2016 which is the second group from the left.  During that quarter Boulder County was ranked #1 in the nation for appreciation by FHFA.gov.  During the quarter, 30% of the sales went for less than the asking price, 20% went for exactly the list price and 50% of the sales sold for a price in excess of the asking price.  This past quarter 56% sold for less than list price, 23% went for exactly asking price and 21% went for above the list price. The overall take away is that buyers have gained some traction in negotiations.  There are two trend lines that intersect.  The upward trending blue line represents the trend of properties selling below the asking price.  The downward trending grey line shows the trend for homes selling at a premium.  With the information above we can conclude that the overall market is trending away from a strong sellers market.  But in real estate broad generalities are not always accurate.  When we look at individual price ranges we find that the...
Boulder County – November Real Estate Statistics

Boulder County – November Real Estate Statistics

Boulder real estate statistics. The numbers are in.  Sales during November 2017 were down 4% when compared to a year ago and are down 6% for the year.  Inventory is just below where we were a year ago.  We have had some good recent activity so I expect that sales in December will be relatively strong. At the end of November 46% of the listings on the market were already under contract. Please see the embedded slideshow for all of the details. All data is taken from IRES MLS.   Boulder County Real Estate Statistics November 2017 from Neil...
Boulder County Appreciation Goes Negative In the 3rd Quarter

Boulder County Appreciation Goes Negative In the 3rd Quarter

I began reporting in June that the market had shifted around Memorial Day.  Since then, sales have declined when comparing same month closings.  FHFA.gov recently released their quarterly “U.S. House Price Index” which reports on price appreciation in the 253 metropolitan areas in the United States.  Looking at yearly appreciation, Boulder (the Boulder MSA includes all of Boulder County) shows an annual increase of 8.57% which is 57th best in the nation.  Boulder County has been ranked in the top 20 each quarter since the 2nd quarter of 2015 so this recent ranking is a bit of a fall from the lofty perch we have recently been inhabiting.  However, nearly 9% annual appreciation is still impressive and certainly above our historical average. What was more concerning in the report was the appreciation rate for the 2nd quarter.  The average home appreciation in Boulder County between July 1 and September 30th was a negative .59%.  This is the first negative quarterly reading since 2nd quarter 2012, just before our market took off.  This quarterly appreciation rakes us 12th from the bottom of the 253 markets.  One quarter does not a trend make but it is something to watch and confirms the shift in the market.  The first chart below shows the four quarter trailing annual appreciation for Boulder County and the United States.  Over the past five years the cumulative appreciation has been 58.29%. The second chart below shows the ranking since 2006 (lower numbers show a better ranking). Here are some other related articles that may give you some added context: http://www.neilkearney.com/2017/09/05/summer-wrap-whats-next-boulder-real-estate-market/  http://www.neilkearney.com/2017/06/05/tracking-boulders-home-appreciation-time/ http://www.neilkearney.com/2017/12/05/the-real-estate-cycle-where-are-we-now/...
Boulder County Real Estate Statistics October 2017

Boulder County Real Estate Statistics October 2017

Sales Down – Inventory Stable – Increased Price Reductions and Negotiation As we head toward the holidays and the end of the year it is normal to see a slow down in the market.  During October sales were down 3.7% from last October and down 17% from two years ago but they were actually up by 12% from sales in the previous month.  So while the overall trend shows a general slowdown in the market that started around Memorial Day, there is still some life in the market and sales are still happening.  In October there were 392 closings in Boulder County. Inventory showed some good improvement during the first half of the year but over the past few months it has reverted to levels that are lower than last year.  As the market has slowed we have seen a bit more negotiation (on average homes sold for 97.4% of list price which is roughly 1.4% lower than a year ago) in the market as well as many more price reductions (see the graph directly below). All of the trends in the market are highlighted in the slide presentation below. Boulder County Real Estate Statistics October 2017 from Neil...
The Kearney Report 3rd Quarter 2017

The Kearney Report 3rd Quarter 2017

The Kearney Report I’ve just published the latest Kearney Report which highlights the latest trends in Boulder County real estate and compares them to the longer term trends.  I break up the county into a few smaller areas including Boulder, Longmont, East County (which includes Erie, Louisville, Lafayette and Superior) so that you can compare price ranges and other statistics in our different communities.  You can view The Kearney Report below online or you can download the PDF here The Kearney Report 3rd Quarter 2017 Real Estate Market Update At the end of the second quarter the Boulder area real estate market started to show signs that the strong sellers market that had been in place for over four years was wavering.  The third quarter solidified that trend as sales slowed, negotiation edged toward neutrality, properties stayed on the market longer and price reductions were very common as sellers figured out that their optimistic expectations were not being realized in the market. During the third quarter of 2017 there were 1,335 sales in Boulder County which reflects an 12% drop from the same quarter of the previous year. The median sales price during the quarter was $475,000 which is 8% higher than it was a year ago (the median price for sales during the second quarter were $500,000).  Homes are staying on the market longer and this has given buyers more choices when looking. During the second quarter, 31% of the homes sold for a price above the list price, this is down from 41% during the second quarter and 42% during the third quarter of 2016.  The average premium...
The Strength of the Market Depends Upon Price Range

The Strength of the Market Depends Upon Price Range

In a recent market update I outlined how we are seeing more price reductions, fewer sales and that the market seems to be shifting away from a strong sellers market.  However, there are still pockets in the Boulder County market where most of the houses are under contract.  As I looked further I found that these “pockets” around the county all seemed to be in the lower price range of their community.  The graphic below shows the absorption rate of the inventory throughout Boulder County in different price ranges.  Think of it this way, if we froze the market and accepted no new listings but sales happened at the rate they have been happening over the past three months, how long would it take to sell all of the listings on realtor waldorf md.  According to NAR (National Association of Realtors) a balanced market is 6 months.  Anything less than that is a sellers market and more is a buyers market.  So what we have is a sellers market under $1 million, a balanced market between $1 million and $2 million and a buyer’s market above $2 million. Another interesting graph that helps to tell the story of the market is below and it shows the number of price reductions in the market on a weekly basis over the past three years.  2015 and 2016 were markets characterized by multiple offers and above asking price sales.  2017 started out in much the same way but by the end of spring we were seeing some softening.  One way to see this softening graphically is in the number of price...
Boulder County Real Estate Statistics for August 2017

Boulder County Real Estate Statistics for August 2017

The real estate statistics for Boulder County for the last few months have shown a shift in the market.  August continued this trend.  Sales during the month were 11% lower than last year and lower than any August since 2011.  We are seeing more price reductions, more negotiation room and it’s taking longer for homes to sell.  It seems that we are shifting away from a strong sellers market to a more balanced market.  View the presentation below to see multiple statistics pointing in the same direction.   Boulder County Real Estate Statistics August 2017 from Neil...