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Boulder Area Real Estate Update – The Kearney Report Q2-2017

Boulder Area Real Estate Update – The Kearney Report Q2-2017

I have just completed the latest edition of The Kearney Report for the second quarter 2017.  The goal of this report is to give you a quick understanding of the statistics and trends in the Boulder County real estate market. You can view the entire report below or you can download the PDF here.  The Kearney Report 2nd Quarter 2017 Real Estate Market Update During the second quarter of 2017 the Boulder area real estate market continued to be a strong sellers market, but towards the end of the quarter there was a change in the market.  In this summary I will discuss these trends as well as discuss what we might expect to see during the third and fourth quarter of the year. During the second quarter of 2017 there were 1,459 sales in Boulder County which reflects an 8.3% drop from the same quarter of the previous year. The median sales price during the quarter was $500,000 which is ironically 8.3% higher than it was a year ago.  Inventory this year has been been consistently higher than the past two years and this has given buyers more choices when looking.  This was especially true at the end of May when the levels of active inventory were above 2016 and 2015 levels, equal to 2014 levels and just below 2013 levels.  During the second quarter, 41% (50%) of the homes sold for a price above the list price, 22% (20%) were at the asking price and 36% (30%) were below.  When comparing this years numbers to last years, which are shown in parenthesis, it’s clear that the market...
The Latest Kearney Report – Q1 2017

The Latest Kearney Report – Q1 2017

I have just published The Kearney Report for the 1st Quarter of 2017.  The entire report can be viewed below on this page or you can download the PDF link here The Kearney Report 1st Quarter 2017 Real Estate Market Update The Boulder area real estate market has been one of the most robust markets in the nation over the past few years.  The market has been characterized by steady sales, low inventory and rapidly rising prices.  This trend continued through the first quarter of 2017. During the first quarter of 2017 there were 847 sales in Boulder County which reflects a 5% drop from the previous year. The median sales price during the quarter was $465,000 which is 9% higher than it was a year ago.  Inventory, especially towards the end of the quarter and then extending into April and May has increased giving buyers more breathing room to shop for homes.  During the first quarter, 35% of the sales had a price above the list price, 20% were at the asking price and 45% were below.  Of those that did sell above list price the average premium paid was 4.4%. During the first quarter of 2016, 42% sold above list price and the average premium paid was 5.5%.  It seems that calling this a slow down is splitting hairs but during that same period it was my experience that showings were down and the number of offers received on any one property was down as well. Through the end of April the total number of residential sales in Boulder County is up roughly 1% with January and March exceeding...
Which Boulder Neighborhoods Have Appreciated the Most?

Which Boulder Neighborhoods Have Appreciated the Most?

Which Boulder neighborhoods have appreciated the most and which are lagging behind?  This is a tough question to answer since there are so many variables.  But hopefully some data will help to make some sense of that question. Over the past five years the Boulder area has been on quite a run of price appreciation.  Some quick research in the MLS tells me that we have seen 50% appreciation in median prices in Boulder County over the past five years.  Breaking it down a bit more, here are the appreciation rates for the local communities over the past five years (from information gathered in IRES MLS): Boulder – 66% Louisville – 51% Lafayette – 60% Longmont – 61% Superior – 56% Erie – 50% To break it down a bit further I have divided the City of Boulder into eleven distinct neighborhoods.  To see more on these neighborhoods please see the Boulder Neighborhood Guide which I update each year.  A map of how I have delineated the neighborhoods is below. With the baseline of 66% appreciation over the past five years, here are the appreciation rates for Boulder neighborhoods. South Boulder – 65% Chautauqua – 52% Mapleton Hill – 44% Newlands – 36% Wonderland Lake/ Dakota Ridge – 34% North Boulder East – 76% Whittier – 46% North East Neighborhoods – 126%  (Note- Mostly condos and townhomes in this area with the exception of the Four Mile Creek, Kalmia 38 and Northfield neighborhoods which have seen high priced new builds which have raised the median prices way above the average) East Boulder – 49% Retail/Industrial Core – 106% (Note...
Boulder County Real Estate Statistics – February 2017

Boulder County Real Estate Statistics – February 2017

Boulder County February 2017 Real Estate Statistics from Neil Kearney The market is already up and running for the spring season. Inventory is up a bit and the percentage of those listings that are under contract is hovering around 50%.  Homes are still selling quick and it’s still a seller’s market but there is not quite as much pressure on the market as there was a year ago.  At the end of February, we can see that sales overall were up 3% in the first 2 months of 2017. However, total sales were down 5% in February when compared to last year. See the slideshow above for graphs and more...
Average Negotiation, Days to Offer & Other Random Facts

Average Negotiation, Days to Offer & Other Random Facts

If you are looking for the entire statistical overview of the Boulder real estate market in 2016 check out this comprehensive post and then this one about sales by price range. After working on those year end reviews articles I realized that I had some random charts that may be of interest.  These include DTO (Days To Offer); Average Negotiation; and Sales by Area throughout Boulder County. Both Days on Market (DOM) and Days to Offer (DTO) are presented in the chart above.  I like DTO better because it gives a more reliable read of the strength o of the market.  Days To Offer tells how long it took for an average listing (in this case all residential properties in Boulder County) to go under contract. In 2016 it took on average just 30 days to go under contract. This was one day longer than a year ago but less than half as long as the 15 year average of 66 days.  We have been blessed with lots of buyer demand. The graph above takes a bit of explanation.  Each column represents a quarter except for the one on the far right which represents 2016 as a whole.  The graph is measuring the relationship between sales price and listing price.  The blue section represents those properties that close below list price (at a discount).  The orange section represents those properties that sell for exactly list price.  The gray section represents those properties that sell for above list price (at a premium).  The data included was both single family and attached homes in Boulder County. Throughout the year the properties...
Sales by Price Range Around Boulder County

Sales by Price Range Around Boulder County

The median price of residential (including single family and attached dwellings) home sales in Boulder County during 2016 was $450,000. This was up roughly 12.5% for the year.  But this is far from the whole story regarding home prices in Boulder County.  As we break the statistics down into the individual communities throughout the county we start to get a broader sense of what is happening.  The first graph below shows the median single family home prices of each of the local communities since 1997.  Over the last twenty years Boulder has really outpaced the other communities in the area. The comparison for attached dwellings (condos and townhomes) is similar but not quite so differentiated. Another way to look at the prices in different communities is to break down by price range where the sales took place in each community.  First let’s start with the county as a whole. During the most recent quarter 62% of all sales were less than or equal to $500,000.  This percentage has been relatively stable over the past three years (comparing just 4th quarters). However, the lower price range ($0 – $250,000) has decreased 17% and those sales have moved to the right. Boulder is more expensive! This isn’t news.  Just 36% of all sales were $500,000 and below. It’s interesting to look at the more equal dispersion of sales across all price ranges.  Over the last three years the entry level has shrunk by 2/3 and the high end has increased.  The sales mix in Longmont is completely different that Boulder.  91% of sales are $500,000 or below.  82% of sales are between $250,000...
Boulder County Real Estate Statistics 2016 – Year in Review

Boulder County Real Estate Statistics 2016 – Year in Review

The Boulder real estate market was one of the hottest real estate markets in the nation this past year. During the second quarter FHFA.gov ranked the Boulder market, which includes all of Boulder County, the number one market for annual home appreciation. However, since the super busy spring and early summer months, the market has slowed down a bit. The combination of strong migration to our area, low interest rates, a strong local economy and low home inventory created the perfect storm in terms of increasing home prices.  In general, 2016 was a great time to be a seller and a frustrating time to be a buyer.  The remainder of this report will explore in detail the factors that affected the Boulder real estate market over the past year. Home Price Appreciation Strong price appreciation has been the direct outcome of the positive household creation and the lack of inventory. Strong demand and limited supply results in increased prices.  According to FHFA.gov, home appreciation in Boulder County averaged 10.56% for the one-year period ending September 30th 2015. (See below) This ranked us 14th in the nation. The year end median prices for all residential sales in Boulder County showed an increase of 12% from a year ago and up 43% from the end of 2010. Median prices in Boulder County have increased 156% since 1996.  Boulder County has been one of the most stable markets in the country.  Here is a graph showing appreciation over time for single family homes in Boulder County. Within the City of Boulder prices of single family homes increased by 11.5% and amazingly condos and...
The Kearney Report – Third Quarter 2016

The Kearney Report – Third Quarter 2016

I have just published The Kearney Report for the 3rd Quarter of 2016. I have streamlined the design and hope you are able to find the key information more easily.  The entire report can be viewed below on this page or you can download the PDF link here The Kearney Report 3rd Quarter 2016 Real Estate Market Update At the end of the second quarter the Boulder County real estate market was ranked #1 in the nation for annual home appreciation. It was a testament to the unrelenting demand, low inventory and the pent up frustrations of buyers who had finally realized that the price they needed to offer didn’t have anything to do with what the last home in the neighborhood sold for.  Since June the market has slowed down.  In the same way a car eventually needs to refuel and a horse needs to cool down, a market, real estate or otherwise can’t run at full speed forever. Don’t get me wrong the market is still good, houses are still selling. In fact, in the 3rd quarter 42% of all sales sold for over the asking price (down from 50% in the 2nd quarter).  The difference I have been seeing in the market over the last few months is this; inventory is slowly rising, houses are staying on the market longer, when a house does get multiple offers it’s more commonly two or three offers rather than a dozen, there are more price reductions happening, there have been fewer showings per listing.  It is no longer a given that a house will sell.  It’s back to reality, where...
Boulder Real Estate Statistics for October 2016

Boulder Real Estate Statistics for October 2016

October was a continuation of the the trends we have been seeing since July. Sales were down 12% for the month but last October was an especially strong month. Year-to-date sales are down 10% from a year ago and down 3.5% when compared to 10 months of sales in 2014.  Inventory is still low but it has stabilized.  Median prices have come off of their highs and during the month the average negotiation off of the list price was 1.17%. This after many months of the average sale being above the list price. It will be interesting to see how our market weathers the winter. During the past two winters inventory has remained low and sales remained strong. This has provided a hot start to both 2015 and 2016. See the slideshow below for more details and comments.   Boulder County Real Estate Statistics – October 2016 from Neil...
Activity Slows in The Boulder Real Estate Market

Activity Slows in The Boulder Real Estate Market

Boulder Real Estate Market Activity Report Summer is over and fall is definitely in the air. The sizzle that we felt during the spring in the Boulder real estate market is now a simmer.  Properties are still selling and there are even multiple offer situations going on, but houses flying off the market the minute they are listed is no longer the norm.  During both 2014 ad 2015 we saw a strong fall surge in the market but now that we are nearing the end of September it’s apparent that we are not going to see that again in 2016. The first graph (below left) shows the number of new listings that have hit the Boulder County market each week over the past three years.  The orange line shows that in 2016 we have had fewer listings go on the market. This continues the trend of fewer homes listed.  However, the graph on the right shows the end of month inventory of properties for sale in Boulder County. We have more inventory this year than last.  Fewer new listings, but higher inventory….how does that happen?  Fewer sales.  (note you can click on any graph and see it in a larger format) The number of properties that go under contract is a good predictor of future sales. Over the last few months (as seen on the graph below and to the left) the market is definitely slower than it was a year ago. Fewer houses are selling. The graph on the right shows monthly sales through the end of August. Given the recent under contract activity we can predict that we will again...